“Uncertain” is economist’s favourite word at present – and for good reason.

• But the pessimism that goes with that uncertainty has misled us in the past.

• Against this backdrop, the premium on a “real time” read on the economy is very high.

• The message from these indicators is that the economy is slowing and downside risks are lifting.

• But they are not signalling recession.

Forecasters everywhere are busily taking the axe to their forecasts. The IMF says the outlook is “gloomy and more uncertain”. The World Bank manages to squeeze the word “uncertainty” some 65 times into their latest outlook publication. And the RBA notes the path back to low inflation without a recession is “a narrow one and clouded in uncertainty”. The common themes here are easy to spot: recession risks are rising and uncertainty is rampant.

Read Michael Blythe's latest inFocus on high frequency economics.

iPartners inFocus High Frequency Economics.pdf